The first ever four day high-tech conflict of the Sub-continent was concluded after a US brokered ceasefire on 10 May 2025. India and Pakistan largely relied upon drones and missiles to inflict damage to each other without physically crossing the border. The recent series of hostilities between forever rivals started after Pahalgam attack on 22 April 2025. While the recent series of hostilities were short lived, they have largely changed the South Asian geopolitical dynamics. The conflict and subsequent fragile ceasefire has opened an era of frequent hostilities between India and Pakistan, reemphasized the American role as conflict manager, and reinforced Beijing’s growing strategic relevance for the South Asian region.
Era of Frequent Hostilities
The South Asian region has never witnessed a sustainable peace. India and Pakistan have constantly remained hostile with full-fledged wars in 1948, 1965 and 1971 along with Kargil crisis of 1999, regular border skirmishes and military standoffs. However, in future there a is higher possibility that South Asia will witness more frequent armed clashes and hostilities between the two South Asian neighbours due to several factors. First, Operation Sindoor of 2025 has provided operational validation to New Delhi’s concept that a limited armed conflict with Pakistan under the nuclear overhang is feasible.
Second, the announcement of the Modi Doctrine, which outlines that if there is a terrorist attack on India, a fitting reply will be given without differentiating between state and non-state actors in Pakistan. This doctrine itself is a recipe of perpetual hostilities. While New Delhi considers this policy might deter Pakistan of allegedly supporting cross-border terrorism, Islamabad has several legitimate concerns. Islamabad believes that his doctrine could be misused by the terrorist organizations hostile to Pakistan who want to keep Islamabad’s attention distracted to the Eastern border. Hence, a few gunmen or a suicide bomber can bring two South Asian neighbours on the brink of another armed conflict. This will also largely affect Pakistan’s counter-terrorism operations in its Western border regions.
Third, India has consistently refused to engage with Pakistan in any bilateral dialogue process until Islamabad takes strong action against ‘alleged terror outfits.’ PM Narendra Modi’s policy that terror and talks cannot go together, terror and trade cannot go together, water and blood cannot flow together, depicts that New Delhi will continue this policy of complete disengagement with Pakistan and Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) likely to remain ‘in abeyance’ for indefinite period. Islamabad has already publicly conveyed that any attempt of diverting water flow by India would be considered as an ‘act of war’. Hence, this policy of ‘complete disengagement’ is adding mistrust between the two nuclear neighbours of South Asia. BJP’s aggressive policy posture has largely emboldened hate preachers and weakened the peace constituencies in India. Any major terror incident in India or Indian attempt to divert water flow will reignite armed conflict between the two countries.
The US Factor
The recent Indo-Pak conflict has once again proved that the United States is the only reliable international actor that can strictly compel both sides to cease hostilities. Prior and during the conflict between India and Pakistan, several regional countries including Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, and Iran tried to defuse tensions, but in vain. The United States largely remained reluctant to intervene as a mediator during initial days of the armed conflict. President Trump stated soon after the Pahalgam terror attack that “they have had that fight for 1000 years in Kashmir… and they’ll get it figured out one way or the other.” The Vice President Vance echoed similar intentions calling it “fundamentally none of our business”.
However, as the conflict escalated between the two nuclear rivals, the United States decisively intervened to cease hostilities between the warring parties. As mentioned above, in an era of frequent periods of hostilities, will the United States repeatedly engage decisively to broker a ceasefire between India and Pakistan? It will be a test case for the United States policymakers to frequently deal with these conflicts. Hence, the United States needs to work on a permanent solution to these hostilities.
China Factor
While the two warring parties were India and Pakistan, the proving ground of arsenals was between the Chinese and Western technologies. During the fragile ceasefire, role of Chinese and Western arsenals will likely further increase as both countries might plug operational weaknesses through their reliable weapons suppliers including Beijing and Western countries. Hence, New Delhi, through recent operation Sindoor has further pushed Pakistan into Beijing’s influence as Islamabad-Beijing strategic cooperation is likely to expand in future.
Further, Pakistan’s reliance on Beijing as a strategic partner will now be viewed by smaller South Asian states as an incentive and deterrent against bigger and aggressive neighbours, i.e., India. New Delhi’s relationship with various South Asian states have experienced troubled episodes in the recent past. It has soured relations with Nepal after a diplomatic row over publication of controversial maps. Similarly, the post-Hasina Bangladesh has also damaged Dhaka-Delhi robust security and economic cooperation. The two sides are currently engaged in limiting trade ties by imposing restrictions on each other other’s imports through various means. Similarly, Maldives has also expelled Indian troops and signed a defence cooperation agreement with Beijing. While Beijing was already expanding its footprints in South Asia, the recent conflict between India and Pakistan will further boost defence cooperation between China and the aforementioned South Asian nations.
Conclusion
The aforementioned factors suggest that the next Indo-Pak conflict might already be planned. The era of perpetual hostilities due to lack of bilateral engagement has started with the recent conflict. This might be considered a ‘new norm’ in South Asian geopolitics, where a single incident could spark another armed conflict. While the United States’ strategic intervention has contained major conflict in South Asia, the recent episode also suggests that the Trump administration intervened as a last resort. It is unclear whether the United States will continue to play a similar role in an era of perpetual hostilities. Moreover, Beijing has bagged several strategic gains out of the recent Indo-Pak conflict. Beijing’s arsenals have been tested in battles as well as it has secured a reputation as a reliable strategic partner, which might further encourage other South Asian states for strategic cooperation with China.
Authored by: Dr Khurram Abbas, Director India Study Center, ISSI.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in the article are of the author and do not necessarily represent the institute’s policy.
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