This paper examines the rapid transition toward a cashless economy in Islamabad, Pakistan, driven by the expansion of digital financial infrastructure, policy reforms, and widespread adoption of instant payment systems such as Raast. Using national and city-level data, the study documents sharp growth in digital transactions. To estimate future adoption patterns, the study applies a logistic (S-curve) diffusion model calibrated with empirical anchors from 2023–2030, showing a steep inflection in the mid-2020s followed by saturation near 99 percent digital usage by 2030 under a reform-intensive scenario. Islamabad emerges as a national leader in digital readiness, supported by high literacy, strong incomes, dense banking networks, and near-universal connectivity. The analysis highlights persistent gaps and emphasizes that policy incentives, interoperability, and trust-building are essential to consolidate cashless adoption. The findings offer a data-driven foundation for policymakers and regulators to strengthen digital inclusion and accelerate Islamabad’s transition toward a fully digital retail payment ecosystem.
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