PAPER 20/05/2025
Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT) refers to the degree to which changes in the exchange rate (ER) affect domestic prices of an economy. Since Pakistan’s economy has a considerable level of openness to international trade, the domestic price level is sensitive to external price shocks. A change in the ER can lead to either the appreciation or depreciation of the Pakistani Rupee (PKR). This shift, in turn, affects the prices of imported goods and consequently influences domestic prices in Pakistan.
Globally, the relationship between ER and the inflation rate remains a topic of debate. ERPT is low in developing countries but high in developed ones. Despite a considerable openness to international trade, there is limited empirical literature on how ER fluctuations affect domestic prices in Pakistan.
This Paper employs McCarthy’s (2000) recursive VAR to investigate the degree of ERPT in Pakistan. The impulse response functions (IRFs) were generated to quantify the degree of an ER shock on domestic prices. The IRFs indicate that:
(i) The ER movements affect domestic prices, or, in other words, ERPT exists.
(ii) The pass-through to domestic prices exists over a year. However, it is low in the first four months.