PAPER 26/09/2025
Pakistan faces one of the largest tax gaps in South Asia. Despite repeated tax reforms, the tax-to-GDP ratio has remained stagnant, undermining fiscal stability and limiting the country’s capacity to achieve its development goals.
This study investigates how Pakistan can address its revenue-generation challenges and raise the tax-to-GDP ratio. It combines empirical analysis with Laffer-curve-based behavioural insights on both salaried and non-salaried individuals.
Using an ARDL model, the study examines the relationship between total tax revenue and top marginal tax rates, and assesses how taxpayers respond to changes in tax rates. The findings confirm the existence of an inverted-U shaped Laffer curve, suggesting that Pakistan is currently on the downward-sloping side of the Laffer Curve, where further increases in tax rates may actually reduce overall government revenue.
The paper also recommends measures to improve compliance, broaden the tax base, and incorporate behavioural perspectives into the tax system.