Dr Roxolana Zigón
The game is afoot?
India launched “Operation Sindoor” in the early hours of Wednesday morning of May 7, 2025, in both Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Pakistan. It carried out 15 missile strikes on Kotli, and Muzaffarabad in the disputed Kashmir region, and Bahawalpur and Mureedke across the international border of Pakistan. In return, Pakistan has responded to the aggression, having shot down five Indian aircraft and vowed to retaliate in the worst clash in more than two decades between the nuclear-armed neighbours.
According to the Indian side, missile strikes were carried out on nine facilities associated with terrorists. However, as a result of the Indian attack, five settlements in Pakistan were affected.
Hitting ‘imaginary terrorist camps,’ deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure, including mosques, on the territory of Pakistan, brought ‘collateral damage.’ It martyred innocent men, women, and children.
India told more than a dozen foreign envoys in New Delhi that “if Pakistan responds, India will respond,” fueling fears of a larger military conflict in one of the world’s most dangerous – and most populated – nuclear flashpoint regions.
On May 5th, 2025, the Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the Kremlin was monitoring the situation on the border between India and Pakistan and hoped for a peaceful resolution of the conflict between the countries. He noted that both countries were strategic partners for Russia, and Moscow valued relations with both New Delhi and Islamabad.
By provoking an escalation of the conflict, India has been crossing the Rubicon that made the voice of reason sound weaker and less convincing to all the international observers. India and Pakistan are powerful nuclear neighbours. They need to treat each other’s interests with respect. India has no right to dogmatically and groundlessly accuse Pakistan of the Pahalgam terrorist attack.
That weakness will make the military trumpets diminish diplomatic efforts meant for peace between the two warring states. The stakes are too high, and the threat of nuclear conflict increases every day of unrealised diplomatic will. It cannot help but prompt Russia to demonstrate its diplomatic prowess in a complex strategic alignment of cards and interests.
In the current diplomatic game of Russia, the “Sofia rule” can be applied, which will allow the conflicting parties to end in a tie. However, at the moment, the lack of chess pieces on the board makes a chance impossible for one or another side.
A Bullet-Proof Ground: Pakistan Is Not Guilty
Since a terrorist attack at Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam in the Anantnag District of the Indian- administered Jammu and Kashmir on April 22, 2025, killing 26 tourists, there has not been a single arrow that has not pierced the reputation of Pakistan. The area is considered a fragile twilight zone between war and peace. In the immediate aftermath of the horrifying incident, the Indian media and its hyper nationalist warmongers created a hysteria and frenzy that has forced the decision-makers to vent their anger and aggression against Pakistan by accusing it of supporting a terror attack in Pahalgam while ignoring Pakistan’s contributions to War on Terror (WoT).That was a beginning of a grave error to lose media canon and replace a process of enquiry and neutral investigation with media trial and relentless persecution of Pakistan. By giving a wrong and distorted perception of the terrorist attack to the global media, India strives to preserve the initial pillars of the conflict between India and Pakistan intact.
India and Pakistan are no ordinary neighbours. They cherish their rich history and roots. Similarly, the region of South Asia holds an old civilisation. Today, it is recognised as a blood-vascular system of the emerging world order. While getting closer to the red lines of the conflict between two nuclear states, there should be only one reigning thought in the minds of the decision-makers: no more bloodshed on the altar of war between India and Pakistan. The waters of the Himalayan rivers equally feed both countries, and the region is home to 1/5th of the world’s population
India should heed the voice of reason and should not revoke the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed between India and Pakistan in 1960. This is a blatant breach of international law, which may lead to dangerous consequences. There is no provision for unilateral exit in the Treaty. Breaching the Treaty indicates India’s disrespect for international treaties and supports a negative global trend of demolishing the very basics of the international system and its institutions. Pakistan is an agrarian economy. Any threat to the water supply is economic terrorism and is considered a direct attack on the people of Pakistan.
Pakistan condemns terrorism and is itself a victim of this scourge since achieving independence from British rule in 1947. More than 70,000 Pakistanis were killed in fighting terror during the last two decades, and nobody knows the pain and agony of losing innocent civilians as much as Pakistan. Its policy of ‘zero tolerance for terrorism’ has always been at the core of the political mindset of Pakistan. It has been successful in dismantling the networks of the terrorists on its territory while dispelling the myth that Pakistan is not capable of controlling the terrorist movements and organisations on its territory. On the contrary, India, being a beneficiary of the ‘International focus on terrorism,’ especially in the aftermath of 9/11, glorifies and even celebrates terrorism in Pakistan.
It has marginalized Kashmiris despite their decades-long struggle for the right of self-determination as per the UN Security Council resolutions. The people of Kashmir have been subjugated and oppressed for over seven decades by the Indian forces. Instead of addressing the situation, India has attempted to externalise the issue. Resultantly, Kashmiris have raised their struggle for self-determination, which is perpetually stifled by the Indian occupation forces.
The Indian media came in grip of a war hysteria after Pahalgam attack. A stretched iron fist of Prime Minister Narendra Modi towards Pakistan, created a strong incentive to give a critical assessment of his foreign policy that uses terrorism as an engine for achieving its strategic goals. His regime already has a history of using such ‘incidents’ in order to introduce oppressive illegal steps, for instance, revocation of the Article 370 and 35b post Pulwama, and a recent illegal holding of the Indus Waters Treaty in the post Pahalgam terrorist attack. Moreover, every orchestra has a conductor, and every conductor has his orchestra score. Surprisingly, the above-mentioned ‘attacks’ occurred during high-profile visits in India. These visits of the conductors had come to fulfill an ‘independent’ inspection of the grand orchestra before plotting a new strategic plan for the next war in the region. We must remember that the world of geopolitics is not familiar with such things as ‘strange coincidences.’
While accusing Pakistan without any evidence, India refused an independent investigation into the dreadful incident to which Pakistan has vehemently condemned. It has already assured full cooperation. Pakistan has neither any connection to it, nor is it a potential beneficiary of the Pulwama or Pahalgam terrorist attacks. It is fully focused on the economic recovery and the perilous fight against terrorism. These accusations defy all logic.in the presence of over 700,000 fully armed Indian occupation forces in Kashmir, how could the Pahalgam terrorist attackers remain undetected?
India has failed to give even a shred of evidence of a Pakistani connection to the terrorists. All allegations are based on the self-satisfying, tenuous assumptions regarding TRF and LeT-Pakistan. Had there been any evidence, the Indian side should have presented it. Let the international community verify it, share it with Pakistan, and seek cooperation in a neutral investigation.
Reasoning India First
If India wishes to preserve its national pride and dignity, it should have stopped looking for the easy solutions in order to hide its strategic failures, playing victim and obsessively stigmatising Pakistan as a ‘terrorist’ state. It is shamelessly maneuvering between the interests of the global players in these transitional times of the world order. Pakistan is strategically and militarily well-equipped to thwart any misadventure and respond in a befitting manner at the time and place of its choosing. It has already manifested its potential earlier in February 2019. If attacked, it holds the option of displaying its strength and will attack once again. It will defend itself against the nuclear fist of India from reaching its borders. Pakistan’s Kashmir choice is a conscious choice, and will never be abdicated.
This incident is an eye-opener for India. It needs a more pragmatic comprehension by India before rushing into securing land and control over territories in Kashmir. The rights of the Kashmiris cannot be denied, and the UN resolutions on Kashmir cannot be violated, especially when it is aspiring to become a permanent member of the Security Council. You can win a war only if you succeed in avoiding it. Striving for leadership at the dawn of the new world order, India is to move as carefully and thoughtfully. Otherwise, there is a strong risk of losing the title of the privileged leader before its official announcement.
The Shadows behind the Scene
There is a strong interest of the new grand narrative architects to shove the climber from the mountain (India), to сhoke the life, economic, and military forces of its rival (Pakistan), and to trim the tail of the dragon in the South Asia region (China). Additionally, after cooking up a new spiral of tension and creating chaos in the region, it may negatively affect Russia’s geostrategic interests in the Asia Pacific realm.
On every spiral of the new world order global scenario development, this or another “privileged partner” will be employed on the chessboard for a concrete geopolitical target and then roughly and inevitably removed from it.
The final objective of this scenario is to erode the very basis of multipolarity and any alternative to the new form of global dominance and techno-feudal dictatorship.
Diplomatic Aces of Russia
In the geopolitical play “Empowering Pakistan, Reasoning India, and De-escalating conflict,” there are three groups of participants: the actors on the stage, the figures behind it, and the producers who run the show.
Russia can play an important role in changing the scenario of the play by implementing an independent ground of critical assessment of the strained ties between India and Pakistan.
It may effectively coin its diplomatic aces by giving a lifting elbow to Pakistan in its international efforts to get rid of the wicked stigmatisation of a “terrorist” state applied on
it by India, as well as to cool down India, which has been enjoying a privileged strategic partnership with Russia for 15 years.
The masterhood of reasoning India can sound very straightforward:
“If you start a war with Pakistan and ruin the strategic stability in the region, it will be viewed as the loss of the ‘privileged leadership’ position at the cutting edge of the new multipolar world order emergence.”
That disposition is strategically beneficial for Russia as it expands the horizons of possibilities to strengthen its stabilising position.
At the end of the day, a contextual, rather than a conventional, winner of the Indo-Pakistan conflict will determine a completely new trajectory of the security system development in the region of South Asia, and emerge as a reliable and visionary partner of Russia. That will be considered as a strategic privilege tested by the hard times and challenges.
Conclusion
India and Pakistan are powerful nuclear neighbours. They need to treat each other’s interests with respect. India holds no right to dogmatically and groundlessly accuse Pakistan of the Pahalgam terrorist attack.
India should heed the voice of reason and revoke the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed between India and Pakistan in 1960, as this is an illegal act that may lead to dangerous consequences. There is no provision for unilateral exit in the treaty.
Pakistan condemns terrorism and is itself a victim of this plague since achieving independence from British rule in 1947. More than 70,000 Pakistanis were killed in the fight against terror over last two decades. The core of its policy is ‘zero tolerance for terrorism.’ Unleashing a cannonade of its aggressive media campaign and disgorging an avalanche of accusations against Pakistan worldwide, and that too without any independent and neutral evidence, will destabilise the region even further. India needs to look inwards.
The terrorist attack is Pahalgam is a vivid illustration of the Indian Intelligence and Security failures. It revealed a strategic and operational inefficiency of one of the keyIntelligence agencies in Indian Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), which initially focused on China and Pakistan.
Pakistan can thwart any misadventure and respond in a befitting manner at the time and place of its choosing. It has a resilient nation. It can effectively grow its inner strength and will to prevent the nuclear fist of India from reaching its borders. Winning a war by avoiding it holds more success and sustainability.
Both need to understand that there is a strong interest of the new architects of the grand narrative to destabilise the strategic ground in South Asia. Plotting the war between India and Pakistan corresponds to the non-alternative scenario of the construction of a new world order. Weakening a fragile neighbourhood between India and Pakistan means future geopolitical and geostrategic dividends for external powers, however, the ever-increasing tensions and competition in the Asia Pacific may produce a longer loop of chaos in the region without a chance to recover economically and technologically for all the parties.
Russia can play an important role in changing a destructive scenario of strategic destabilization in the region by implementing an independent ground of critical assessment of the strained ties between India and Pakistan.
By provoking an escalation of the conflict, India has been crossing the Rubicon that made the voice of reason sound weaker and less convincing to all the international observers. That weakness will make the military trumpets diminish any diplomatic efforts driven towards peace between two warring states. The stakes are too high, and the threat of nuclear conflict increases every day.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in the article are of the author and do not necessarily represent the institute’s policy.