Pakistan has an estimated $6 trillion worth of copper, gold, coal, chromite, antimony, and rare earth elements, among other minerals. However, the mineral sector contributes merely 2-3% to GDP and remains far below its potential. Applying the “Resource Curse” framework, this paper investigates the paradox of Pakistani mineral wealth and points to institutional quality as the key factor that shapes whether mineral endowments catalyze inclusive and sustainable development. Based on national policy documents, provincial regulatory frameworks, mineral production data, and recent literature, the study identifies weak governance, fragmented federal-provincial coordination, security challenges, limited technological capability, poor geological data, and exclusion of local communities as key bottlenecks to constraining the sectoral performance. Disparities across the provinces, inadequate revenue-sharing arrangements, and political uncertainty are additional factors deterring foreign and domestic investment. Analysis indicates that, if supported by better governance structures, stronger Public–Private Partnerships (PPPs), and greater security, exports of minerals can increase from $3 billion to $6–8 billion per annum, while growth in GDP can rise from approximately 3% to 5–6% over the next few years. A number of large-scale projects, including the Reko Diq project, illustrate potential export earnings, fiscal revenues, employment generation, and regional development. These, however, need to come with associated environmental safeguards, transparent institutional mechanisms for fair benefit distribution to the local communities. The study concludes that transforming mineral wealth into long-term economic gains demands coordinated national governance, value-added mineral processing, investor-friendly reforms, and inclusive development frameworks. Strengthening institutional quality is, therefore, essential for converting Pakistan’s mineral endowments from a latent resource curse into a sustainable economic opportunity.
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