Policy Brief 3 hours ago
By applying a sectoral detailed CGE model augmented with direct cost tallies for military assets, infrastructure repair, tourism, and trade we find that India’s economy would incur at least $94.962 billion in real, realized costs over the four days of conflict. This approach: Quantifies government balance-sheet impacts (fiscal deficit spike) that market capitalization losses omit. Models lost production (GDP decline) as a real cost, not just paper wealth. Includes key service sectors (tourism, aviation) and public-information operations often excluded from simple damage tallies. These results underscore the heavy price of even brief military escalations and provide Pakistan’s policymakers with a rigorous economic basis for conflict-aversion and resilience planning.